Crisis, Media and Consent: Impact of 2023 Turkish Earthquake on Incumbent Popularity

Natural disasters often shape political environments by emphasizing governance dynamics during crises and influencing voter behavior. Understanding dynamics in competitive authoritarian regimes is important since state control over resources and media can strengthen the political impacts of crises. Using a difference-in-differences and event-study approach and leveraging spatial variation in earthquake intensity, collapsed buildings, and proximity to the epicenter, I analyze the effect of earthquake exposure on incumbent vote share. The findings show a significant increase in the votes received by the incumbent, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, especially in the areas most affected by the earthquake, despite the many complaints about how the government handled the disaster. I explore potential mechanisms driving this effect, including state-led aid distribution and media control. The findings are robust to alternative exposure measures and regional subsamples. Interestingly, the earthquake increased the incumbent support without affecting voter turnout or the probability of political turnover, suggesting mechanisms such as rally-around-the-flag dynamics and scapegoating as a central role. This research contributes to the literature on crises, voting behavior, and competitive authoritarian regimes by examining one of Turkey’s most catastrophic natural disasters.